Overview
This year's first round was unusual in a number of ways. We had five college relievers taken, beating the previous record of three (set in 2003). We also saw eight corner infielders taken and four catchers, meaning those three categories accounted for more than half of the 30 picks in the round, which usually is dominated by starters, shortstops and center fielders.
The surprising, and generally positive, trend this year was for teams selecting near the top of the draft to take the best player available. The Pirates, Royals, Giants, Nationals and Reds all took players in the top 10 picks who are seeking premium bonuses well in excess of slot recommendations. If the draft is supposed to encourage parity by steering the best players to the worst teams, by and large this year's first round did just that. That trend might break down in later rounds as small-market teams limit the number of tough-sign players they'll draft, but at least the top-tier players are headed to the teams most in need of their services.
Best pick
For value relative to pick, the Rockies have to be ecstatic to get Christian Friedrich, the third-best college starter in the draft pool, at No. 25. Friedrich has a chance at four average or better pitches, with three of them projecting as at least a little above average, and projects as a solid midrotation starter who just needs to refine his command and control. Honorable mention would be Justin Smoak, third in my rankings, who fell to Texas at No. 11. Smoak was the best of all the corner infielders available in the draft because of his combination of power, switch-hitting ability and defensive skills, and he should have gone in the top five picks overall, instead lasting long enough to go to a team that knows a thing or two about first basemen with power, switch-hitting ability and defensive skills.
Two other picks worthy of praise are the Yankees' and Red Sox's selections: Gerrit Cole and Casey Kelly, respectively. The praise should be tempered by the recognition that those teams' risk tolerances are higher, so they were more willing to meet those players' anticipated bonus demands than clubs earlier in the round were.
Worst pick
The first round had a few head-scratchers, but two of them really stand out. One is Josh Fields. He actually has good value for when he was picked, but it makes absolutely no sense for the worst team in baseball to take a college reliever whose value is tied up in "now." The Mariners' best prospects are all in Class A ball, years away, and they're light on both power bats and high-probability starting pitching. Their big league club is second-to-last in the AL in scoring, third-to-last in ERA and dead last in starters' ERA. This is a team that has to be thinking about the future. You look at that club, and that organization, and decide that the best thing to do in the draft is take a reliever who can come to the big leagues right away?
The other bizarre pick was Minnesota's taking Carlos Gutierrez, who didn't make my top 75. Gutierrez, the closer for the University of Miami, is a one-pitch guy -- a 90-94 mph fastball with good sink but no second pitch and a recent elbow surgery on his résumé. There's a place in the draft to take a one-pitch reliever with some recent success, but there were better players -- and especially better relievers -- on the board at No. 27.
First to the majors
With five relievers going in the first round, there are a few contenders for this title. Fields is 23 years old, has two plus pitches, and was picked by a team with a general manager and manager fighting for their jobs. The Tigers took Ryan Perry in the first round and followed up with former Team USA closer Cody Satterwhite and Kentucky reliever Scott Green in the second and third rounds, so they might simply sign all these players and replace their entire bullpen by July 1. Arizona took left-hander Daniel Schlereth, who certainly could get left-handed hitters out in the majors right now with his curveball, and both Gutierrez and the Cubs' Andrew Cashner are candidates to move through their systems quickly as well.
If we set aside the relievers, Brian Matusz (taken by Baltimore with the No. 4 pick) stands out as a player who could -- and should -- move quickly. If he goes to A-ball or even Double-A, he could miss bats left and right with his off-speed stuff and never have to work on improving his fastball command. He might not be challenged at all until he reaches the big leagues, which is a strong argument for getting him to the majors sooner rather than later, especially when you consider the general fragility of pitchers' arms.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2008/I...%26id%3d3428233