After the item on Johan Santana's diminished velocity was posted here yesterday, some scouts from other teams chimed in, indicating through e-mails and phone calls that they were seeing the same thing. "The Mets were asking around about that in spring training, about what his true [velocity] baseline was," said one talent evaluator. "They were concerned."

Said an AL scout who has seen Santana this month: "His stuff isn't even close to what it was [with the Twins]."

How much has his diminished stuff affected him? We have less than two months of starts to consider from 2008, a very small sample, and keep in mind that except for last season -- when Santana suffered a significant statistical decline in the last six weeks -- he has often done his best work in the second half.

With that said, here are the primary indicators:

* His ratio of strikeouts per nine innings over the last six seasons has been 11.38, 9.61, 10.46, 9.25, 9.44, 9.66. This year: 7.79.

* His strikeout-to-walk ratio over the last six seasons: 2.80, 3.60, 4.91, 5.29, 5.21, 4.52. This year: 3.87.

* Opponents' OPS over the last six seasons: .607, .642, .564, .594, .616, .678. This year: .723.

As I wrote a lot about during the winter of Santana trade talks, rival talent evaluators saw a noticeable -- not dramatic, but noticeable -- decline in his stuff after his 17-strikeout performance against Texas on Aug. 19. He's made 17 starts since then, and here are his primary numbers:

* Innings: 111
* Hits: 109
* Earned runs: 50
* Home runs: 20 (By comparison, Paul Byrd has allowed 21 during the same span)
* Walks: 28
* Strikeouts: 102
* ERA: 4.05

(Since the beginning of the 2007 season, Santana has allowed 44 home runs -- most in the majors.)

Look, Santana is still obviously among the better pitchers in the game, and his remarkable ability to change speeds means that he probably is going to age better than a lot of his peers. He is smart, dedicated and seriously competitive, so if there is something to figure out and there are adjustments that can be made, he'll get there.

This question remains: Will he be worth to the Mets what they will pay him over the duration of the contract? We'll see.

But it's probably not a good thing that rival scouts are seeing signs of diminishment less than two months into a seven-year deal.

• Willie Randolph's job is in jeopardy after the Mets got swept by the Braves, and he's still waiting for one of the Wilpons to return his phone call, Adam Rubin writes. According to Rubin, the Mets need to salvage the upcoming series against Colorado to save the manager's job.

Randolph can't change how he feels, writes Sam Donnellon.

Moises Alou landed on the Mets' disabled list.


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Lol....suuuuuuuuuuuch crap. I've seen him reach 97 MPH this year.

Sure you have. Except he's never thrown that hard, ever.

Rosenthal doesn't think there's a lot of regret in the Yankee organization for not acquiring Johan Santana. One executive notes Santana's throwing with increased effort this season yet without increased results.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

It's scary that he is trying to throw harder. Since he is still not able to match what he was in years past and he is putting more pressure on his arm.

it doesnt matter, even if he only has 2 santana esque years left, they still got a good deal for what they gave up.

Yea pretty much. Unless Carlos Gomez goes Carlos Beltran on us within the next 4 years......and Guerra becomes a decent MLB starter

Really? Prove it. You're really going to try and tell me that he hasn't done something ever that he's done this year?

Steinbrenner is sooo pissed he didn't get Santana. Hughes and Kennedy lookin' reaaal good for you this year, eh? And I'm sure the executive knows what he's talking about, because he certainly knows what Santana is doing and how hard he's trying to throw.

Face it. Pitchers don't decline at the age of 29. And you're simply jealous.

I'd rather have a Saun Marcum.

dude could really be 30,31,32

he may only be 29, but he has a lot of innings on his arm.

I watched a game between Santana and Carmona last year, and he threw 7 or 8 innings, K'd a ton of dudes, and I didn't see a single pitch over 94. I highly doubt he's somehow adding 3 mph to his fastball.

Could be...blah blah blah that's all crap unless you can prove it.

Lol.

So do a lot of other guys like Roy Halladay. Doesn't mean much.

Halladay is built like a horse though, Santana isn't.

halladay will decline soon too. so many innings...

Halladay also doesn't throw as many pitches as you would think, even though he eats a tonne of innings every year.

As long as his sinking fastball remains has 91+ velo, he'll be fine.

All this negative talk around here.

Some positive talk, Mr. Gomez is hitting .279 while I might add striking out 48 times. Teach this kid not to swing at everything, he will be a beast.

Roy Halladay has size going for him against Santana. He also doesn't rely on a changeup, a pitch which focuses on the disparity of speed from the fastball. So even if he loses a couple of miles, it won't effect him as much as a Santana. And by injuries, Halladay's innings have been limited in years. He threw 2 years over 200 innings, then because he was injured threw 133 and 141 inning, thus effectively giving him a break before throwing 200 innings again. Though he's more of an injury risk because he's had injuries in the past.


lol, me and THU talked about this well before he was traded. Its not really even the velocity that concern me, its the HRs. I've seen Santana touch 94 this year, but he used to consistantly be there in the past, now he's closer to 90 with his fastballs.

I think he's been over-throwing his fastball for speed purposes. Where he throws a ball at 94, but with much less control. Like you go to one of those radar cages, and try to throw your hardest, it usually spikes up your MPH by about 3, but you don't really have control. But when you try to throw your hardest with control, you obviously can't hit your highest MPH. I think the same is happening for Santana. And when he tries to slow it down and pitch with control, he gives up more hits, because the difference between that changeup and fastball has diminshed, and a 90 mph fastball is easier to hit than a 95 mph one. But when he tries to over-throw the ball, he loses the control he had in the past, which thus leads to more home runs, as more of these fastballs sit in the middle of the plate or are way off the plate where hitters take the pitch.

I still say 3 years, of Johan being pretty to really good. After that, this deal will sour.

But its still a good deal for the Mets, because the prospects they gave up aren't all that great. Gomez has potential, but he seems retarded out there sometimes. Its the money that will most likely bite the Mets.

Its really hard to lie about your age if your an American. People from the DR have hand written birth certificates. Think about that....

All I am going to say is that scouts were saying this last year as well. So it was buyer beware