Brian Sabean: Worst GM in Baseball
Published by Scott Jensen on December 13, 2007 09:03 am under Giants, Irrational Behavior, GM Evaluation
With apologies to Jon Daniels, who was in the running before a not-bad signing of Milton Bradley, San Francisco General Manager has earned himself the title of Baseball’s Worst GM effective December 12, 2007.
Where do I start? I’ll get to the Rowand signing and the willingness to trade Lincecum and Cain, but first, let’s set the background.
First of all, you’ve assembled a terrible team. In 2007, you had these gems:
1B: Ryan Klesko (.745 OPS) and Rich Aurilia (.672!)
2B: Ray Durham (.638)
3B: Pedro Feliz (.708)
SS: Omar Vizquel (.621 – I know he’s about defense, but if the rest of the team can’t hit, try to get some offense here)
OF: Dave Roberts (.695)
SP: Barry Zito (no one in baseball thought this was a good move; I won’t go further into this because it would take up the whole article)
Second of all, you must have help down on the farm, right? Because Klesko, Feliz and Barry Bonds are all going to be gone. I’m not a Giants minor league expert, so excuse me if I commit some gaffes here. But to determine if there is help on the farm, I went to www.baseball-reference.com and did some stat searching. You’ve got a third basemen – Scott McClain – at AAA that can mash, but wait… he’ll be 36 next year. That’s a good use of a minor league roster spot.
You’ve got a decent outfielder – Justin Leone – at Fresno who had a .881 OPS. Oops, he’ll be 31 next year. You do have another promising outfielder in Nate Schierholtz, I’ll give you that. He’s young (23) and had an AAA OPS of .925 last year. He doesn’t walk enough (only 19 in 523 combined at bats), but he’s got some promise.
Maybe you’ve stocked Fresno with insurance players, like the Red Sox do so well. Maybe you’ve got some guys tucked away in AA. Of course, insurance only really matters if you’re a good team. Why have insurance for a bad team?
Let’s look at your AA team – the Connecticut Defenders. A strategically located minor league affiliate if I’ve seen one! Justin Hedrick and Alexander Hinshaw both appear to have some potential as relievers. John Bowker has some potential as a mid-level power outfielder. Eugenio Velez might have promise as a light-hitting, speedy second baseman.
Bottom line is that you don’t have much in the minors that will be contributing at the major league level for the next couple of years. Again – I’m not a Giants minor league expert; I’m just looking at the numbers. So any experts out there, let me know if I’m missing something.
So on your major league roster, you’ve got just six guys who have real value, where “real value” is defined as someone other teams would definitely be interested in:
RF Randy Winn
C Bengie Molina
SP Matt Cain
SP Todd Lincecum
RP Brian Wilson
OF Nate Schierholtz
Plus three guys who might have some value:
RP Brad Hennessey
RP Kevin Correia
OF Fred Lewis
Add in the fact that there’s not much ready down on the farm, and things aren’t looking too good for the Giants for the next several years. So what should Sabean’s plan be? Rebuild and re-tool, with the goal of competing in 2010. Nothing Sabean can do in the next couple of years in the way of trades and free agent signings will help achieve what should be the Giants’ goal – and that should be winning the division.
Here’s what your plan should be:
Trade Winn, Molina, Hennessey, Correia and Lewis for whatever prospects you can get – prospects that will be ready in two years. Get prospects who are 1-3 years away from contributing. I know, you won’t get much for these guys, and it will make a bad team even worse next year. But keeping them won’t help them win the division.
Place more emphasis on drafting and developing good young players. Seems like I shouldn’t have to say that.
At the end of 2009, start promoting those minor leaguers who can help starting in 2010. For those prospects who don’t project to be in the majors until 2011 and beyond, trade them for young major leaguers or prospects who are ready to compete.
Hope that Lincecum and Cain develop into aces.
Hope that Wilson develops into a stud closer.
Sign free agents in the offseason before the 2010 season, when you have more financial flexibility because you’ll have so many young players.
That’s how you should do it, and, really, it’s the only way of truly trying to win.
So what have you done this off season?
You were (according to reports) interested in signing Hideki Matsui. Why? If it’s because you think he’ll keep people in their seats while you rebuild, then kudos to you! Well thought out. But if it’s because you think you can win next year or in 2009, then, sour grapes to you. It will be a waste of money.
You were (according to reports) willing to trade Lincecum or Cain – possibly for Alex Rios or Matsui. Why??????? These two are your future, part of the re-building plan. If it is true you were considering this… I don’t know what to say.
You signed Aaron Rowand – for five years! It’s not so much the money that bothers me, though I don’t think Rowand is worth $12M a year, but it’s those years. Did you realize that Rowand will be 31 at the end of next season? (That means he’ll be 36 at the end of the contract.) Did you realize he plays with reckless abandon, meaning he’s more prone to getting hurt? Did you know he’s coming off a career year? Perhaps not.
Last year, hitting behind Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard and ahead of Pat Burrell. In 2008, when he’s hitting behind Dave Roberts, Omar Vizquel and Randy Winn and in front of Bengie Molina, he’s going to give you 18 home runs and 70 RBIs (along with great defense) and .280/.325/.440. By the last year of his contract, you’ll be lucky to get 140 games of .270/.317/.420.
Overall, you’ve put yourself in a terrible position of having to pretend to contend in 2008 because you’ve done such a bad job drafting and developing players. To pretend, you’ve signed Rowand – a waste of the owner’s money since it may get you third place at best in the AL West. I’m sure the owner and fans will be thrilled with that.
And if you’re not pretending to contend, that means you actually think you’re going to contend in 2008 with the signing of Rowand. I don’t know which is worse.
Oh – Ed Wade – I hear you chuckling when reading this. Don’t. You’re headed down the same path.
Scott JensenLets not forget On November 14, 2003, the Minnesota Twins traded A.J. Pierzynski to the SF Giants for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser.
Twins Fans everywhere would like to thank you brain sabean