I posted this one on the Mets official board (Didn't get a response at all), and also on a rotoworld board (Did get some nice feedback). BTW, this is my first topic here, I signed up here a while ago, but I changed computers and wasn't sure of the screen name here. Well I'm back, lol.
There is a little bit of gramatical errors, but by the time I was finished with this, it was hard to proof read this. Ok here we go:
I never really understood all the hatred for Willie, as my whole point of view is that, this team was over-rated, and too dependent on Reyes and a shaky pitching staff. From where I stand, I saw Omar as the one who should take MORE blame than Willie. Don't get me wrong, Willie isn't the brightest nut in the world, but he doesn't deserve the scorn that he recieves with Mets fans. Willie is attacked more because he doesn't really have past performances to rely on. So to make my point, lets examine Omar Minaya as a GM. I pretty much tried to exclude free agent signings, because that probably doesn't say a whole lot about the ability of a GM, but rather the contracts he is able to offer. In Montreal, he was restrained with a budget, so he was at a disadvantage there, and in NY he has very high payroll, so he's at an advantage. I looked at his drafts first, and provide the players that were available for him to choose. The pool of players don't include players such as say Delmon Young or Justin Verlander, who were never on the draft board when Omar got to pick. Then his trades.
Omar Minaya took over the Expos in 2002, lets look at his drafts since then:
2002 draft:
1st round (5th pick), he picks Clinton Everts:
The players chosen after this pick (thus the pool of players he got to pick from) and before his next pick (For time issues, we'll just call this PoP, standing for Pool of Players)
Prince Fielder, Jeff Francis, Jermey Hermedia, Joe Saunders, Khalil Greene, Scott Kazmir (Yeah that guy again), Cole Hamels, Nick Swisher, James Loney, Jeff Francoeur, Joe Blanton, Matt Cain, John Mayberry (He didn't sign, is now with the Rangers), Mark Teahan (didn't sign either), Joey Votto
Then came the Expos second round pick: Darrell Rasner (Yes the same guy was in the Yankees bullpen earlier this season after being released by the Nats last year):
PoP for that pick: Micah Owings (Didn't sign), Zach Hammes (Dodgers, he is a sleeper prospect right now), Jon Lester, Johnathan Broxton, Brian McCann, Elijah Dukes (Ok, maybe that wasn't that bad to pass him up).
Then came his 3rd pick in round 3: Larry Broadway
PoP for that pick: Curtis Granderson
Then his 4th round pick: Jonathan Felfoldi:
The PoP for that pick: Rich Hill, Josh Johnson, Delwyn Young, Hayden Penn
Then his 5th round pick: William Pearson
The PoP for that pick: Cesar Ramos (Didn't sign), John Maine
His 6th round pick: Chad Chop
His PoP for that pick: Scott Olsen, Pat Neshek, Matt Capps
This his 7th round pick: Michael O'Connor:
The PoP for that pick: Ryan Spilborghs, Joey Gomes
His 8th round pick: Friedel Pinkston:
The Pop for that pick: Adam Lind (Didn't sign), Clay Hensley (Although this isn't that bad)
His 9th round pick: Christopher Barlow:
The PoP for that is pretty non existant
His 10th round pick: Justin Azze
The PoP for that pick: Howie Kendrick, Matt Lindstrom,
His 11th round pick: Jason Bergman (Finally one that is atleast decent):
The PoP for that pick: Joe Zumaya, Ryan Shealy,
Ok, now because I'm tired, I'll just list the players they missed in round 12 - 20:
PoP: Anthony Reyes, Mike Pelfrey (But with how's he's been bad this year, not that bad I guess, didn't sign by the way), Dustin Nippert, Russel Martin.
There, for all those picks, Omar Minaya got Jason Bergman, a brink pitching prospect who is probably a 5th starter on most teams. This is a terrible job by Omar on the draft. I know his budget is limited with the Expos, but to pass up on all those good players and to basically land Jason Bergman in the 10th round is kinda a disgrace.
Now, lets move onto the 2003 draft:
2003 Draft:
1st round pick: Chad Cordero (Very good pick)
PoP for that pick: Brandon Wood, Chad Billingsly, Daric Barton, Carlos Quinten, Adam Miller, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Adam Jones (M's), Jo-Jo Reyes, Tom Gorzelanny, Ryan Sweeny.
There was a 2nd round pick: Jerry Owens
The PoP for this pick: Jason Hirish, Andre Eithier, Andrew Miller, Chris Ray, Ryan Garko, Shaun Marcum,
His 3rd round pick:Kory Casto
The PoP for that pick: Matt Harriston (The pitcher the Braves sent to Texas as part of the Tex deal), Jonathan Papelbon,
His 4th round pick: Edgardo Baez
The PoP for that pick: No one of importance
His 5th round pick: Billy Webb
The PoP for that pick: Sean Marshall, Kevin Kouzmanoff
His 6th round pick: Joshua Whitesell
The PoP for that pick: Matt Kemp, Virgil Vazquez (Tigers), Brian Bannister, Kyle Kendrick,
His 7th round pick: Devin Perrin
The PoP for that pick: Reggie Willits,
His 8th round pick: Daryl Thompson
The PoP for that pick: No one of importance
His 9th round pick: Gabriel Sosa
The PoP for that pick: No one of importance
His 10th round pick: Victor Hamisevicz:
The PoP for that pick: Not a lot.
Ok from Rounds 11- 20 again, who they passed up:
The PoP for rounds 11-20: Donald Veal, James Hoey (O's a very good RP prospect), Matt LaPorta (Didn't sign), Ian Kennedy (Didn't sign), Anthony Reyes (Again), Ian Kinsler,
He gets a good pick with Chad Cordero, so he did ok in this draft. He didn't leave the draft with nothing like last time, so we can see this as an improvement I guess.
Now lets see how he does with the Mets:
His first draft was thre 2005 draft:
2005 draft, 1st round: Mike Pelfrey
The PoP for that pick: Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Trevor Crow, Chris Volstad, Cesar Carrillo, John Mayberry, Jacoby Ellsbury, Colby Rasmus, Travis Buck, Cesar Ramos (again) Luke Hocheover, Clay Bucholz, James Cox, Donald Veal (agian), Kevin Slowley, Joshua Wall, Yunel Escobar, Micah Owings (again), Will Inman,
His next pick is in the 4th round: Picks Hector Pellot
The PoP for that pick: Kevin Whelan, Brent Lillibridge, Gabriel Sanchez,
His pick in the 5th round pick: Andrew Butera
The PoP for this pick: Jonathan Mealoan,
His 6th round pick: Greogory Cain
The PoP for this pick: No one of importance
His 7th rounc pick: Jonathan Niese
The PoP for that pick: No one of importance
His 8th round pick: Sean McCraw
The PoP for this pick: Austin Jackson,
His 9th round pick: Robert Parnell
The PoP for this pick: No one of importance
His pick for the 10th roundL Courtney Billingslea
The PoP for that pick: Joshua Outman,
Now rounds 11-20 PoP that weren't picked by him: Alan Horne, Pedro Alverez (He didn't sign, but is believed to to be the consenus top pick in next year's draft), And thats about it. Mostly the high end picks here, don't pan out for another year because its usually high risk high school picks that have the upside here.
I know I listed Pelfrey before as a PoP and at the spot he was available, he was valuable, but tagging him with a first round pick in retrospect looks kinda bad now. He just doesn't seem to develop that second pitch he so desperately needs, and Rick Peterson hasn't really helped him. I see this as a step back, because Omar basically came out of this with no star, and his only hope is that Pelfrey turns out decent.
Lets see his next attempt at the draft:
2006: Omar didn't really have a lot to work with in draft picks
1st round: No pick
2nd round: Kevin Mulvey
PoP for that pick: Justin Masterson, Cedric Hunter
3rd round pick: Joe Smith (Good pick)
PoP: Bryce Cox, Zach McAllister,
4th round pick: John Holdzkom
PoP: Not really anyone of note, unless Jeff Smardzija counts. He has some hype the but the results been rather ordinary, so I don't think he should be inlcuded.
5th round pick: Stephen Holmes
PoP: No one of note again
6th round pick: Scott Schafer
PoP: Not much again
7th round pick: Daniel Stegall
PoP: Tim Norton,
8th round pick: Nathan Hendrick
PoP: Dellin Betances
9th round pick: Jermey Barfield
PoP: Mark Melancon (he's injured now, but still a top talent, and could possibly be the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera according to some scouts), Desmond Jennings
10th round pick: Phillps Orta
PoP: No one of note
11-20 PoP that weren't picked by him: Matt LaPorta. David Robertson, Lars Anderson,
He gets Joe Smith, who looked good earlier this year. Maybe it was his release point that was fooling hitters, and maybe they caught up to him, but atleast he made it to the majors, and had some success. He did fall off at the end, but there could be a decent middle relief pitcher in there, so I think Omar does ok. But with his resources, he should have gotten atleast one star. I mean, the Yankees, the RedSox, the Tigers, they all seem to go overslot to land talent, and the Mets just don't do it, or pick the wrong guy to do it on.
Excluded the 2007 draft, because its way too early to tell with that draft.
From this, I think its safe to assume that Omar isn't all that good in the draft. He is part of the reason why the Nationals are so bad right now. He rarely took advantage of the opportunity to pick star players in Montreal, and he doesn't take advantage of the money factor in NY when it comes to drafts.
Then throw in his trades:
Lets see how he did in trades over there for someone who is so acclaimed:
He started as the GM in 2002, so lets see:
Traded Guillermo Mota and Wilkin Raun to the Dodgers for Matt Herges and Jorge Nunez. A big win for the Dodgers, as Mota had some good seasons for them. So he loses his first one pretty badly, when he trades away a young relief pitcher in Mota, who was actually good back then (Juiced or not, thats another question)
Traded Jason Bay and Jimmy Serrano to the Mets for Lou Collier. Its one thing to trade a future star like Bay for nothing, but its an insane event when anyone, and I do repeat ANYONE gets fleeced by the great Steve Philips. Philips obviously made up for this great move by trading Bay away for nothing. So Omar has lost that trade too, and in horrible fashion.
He did a minor trade with the Mets that sent Scott Strickland here, who used to be decent for about what 2 seasons? He got Bruce Chen, Luis Figueroa, Dickey Gonzalez. The Mets later sent Saul Rivera (You recognize him from the past week, don't you?) for the trade. I'll call this trade even. Rivera had some injury problems, and isn't the same pitcher as he was projected to be. Strickland was ok, for about a year.
Then Omar does his masterstroke: He trades Lee Steven, Brandon Philips (now a 30-30 second baseman), Grady Seizmore (a superstar CF), Cliff Lee (a good 4th starter on an NL team), for half a season rental of Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew. To say he got his rear end kicked in this deal, is putting it lightly.
Then Omar traded Carl Pavano, Graeme Lloyd, Mike Mordecai, Justin Wayne, for a rental of Cliff Floyd, Wilton Guerrerro, Claudio Vargas Again Omar loses a trade as Pavano had one very good season before becoming the laughing stock of the Free Agent world with the Yankees.
He trades Cliff Floyd to the RedSox for Sun-Woo Kim and Seung Song. He loses ANOTHER trade.
Then Omar does his first really good trade. He trade Matt Herges, to the Pirates for Chris Young (The pitcher on the Padres) and John Searless. Now this is a very good trade.
Then Omar trades Bartolo Colon and Jorge Nunez to the WhiteSox, for Rocky Biddle, El Duque, and Jeff Leifer, which again he loses, because he paid way too much to get Colon in the first place, and gets nothing in return basically.
Then Omar does a good trade where he trades Jim Brower and Matt Blan for Livan Hernendez. Livan pitches good for the Expos and later the Nats.
Omar also fails to trade his biggest commodity to rebuild, Vladimir Guerrero. Instead of getting stud prospects, Omar settles for draft picks, which he didn't too great on.
Omar then trades Michael Barrett to the A's for Bret Prince. Another trade where he loses.
Omar traded Javier Vazquez to the Yankees, for Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera, and Randy Choate. This was a good trade. Nick Johnson is a good player, even though he seems to get injured a lot. Juan Rivera turned out good, just with another team.
Traded Scott Stewart to the Indians for Maicer Izturis, and Ryan Church, a pretty good deal by Omar
Then Omar pulls what might be his best value trade out of them all in trading Choate for John Patterson, an excellent move.
But Omar makes up for his good trade with Chris Young by trading him and Josh McKinley to the Rangers for Enar Diaz and Justin Echols. A very bad move by Omar
Omar trades away saul Rivera to the Brewers for some no one player. He loses another trade.
Omar trades Carl Evertt to the WhiteSox and gets Gary majewski and Jon Rauch. A very good trade by Omar
Omar trades away Orlando Cabrera to Boston as part of that 4 way deal, he gets back Brendon Harris, Alex Gonzalez, and Francis Beltran. So Omar gets his butt kicked on this one too.
Those are Omar's moves before he came to NY. Now with NY, lets see. Lets look from the end of the 2004 season:
Traded Mike Stanton for Felix Heredia; a wash basically, one problem for another.
Traded Vance Wilson for Anderson Hernendez. Its a win for Omar, but not in a great way as Hernendez hasn't shown that he can hit MLB pitching at all so far.
He sold Pedro Felixiano to a Japanese team.
Traded for Doug Mientkiewtiz: Didn't give up much, but he traded for Doug Mientkiewitz, thats got to be a negative right?
Traded Jason Philips for Kaz Ishi: Not exactly a trade that worked out for either side, so call it a wash I guess
Traded Mike Cameron to the Padres for Xavier Nady: I don't know if Cameron could cut it here, but he is still a better player than Nady, I'd say Omar lost this one.
Traded Mike Jacobs, Yusmeiro Petit, and Grant Psomas to the Marlins for Delgado: I think its a win for Omar, as Delgado did have a good year last year, but Jacobs was cheaper. Its a slight win I guess, considering salaries and all.
Traded Dante Brinkley and Gaby Hernendez to the Marlins for La Duca. This one I think is a slight win too, but Gaby Hernendez seems like he could be good for the Marlins.
Traded Jae Seo and Tim Hamulack for Duaner Sanchez and Steve Schmoll: This was a clear win until Sanchez decided to take late night cab rides. Still think its a win.
Traded Kris Benson for Jorge Julio and John Maine. A very good trade by Omar
Traded Jorge Julio for El Duque, another good trade by Omar
Traded Kaz Matsui to the Rockies for Eli Marrerro: I'll say this is just a wash. Kaz has done well with the Rockies, but he was never going to cut it here, and I would have probably released him outright, so I can't blame Omar on this one.
Traded Jeff Keppinger for Ruben Gotay, another good trade I think
Traded Xavier Nady to the Pirated for Roberto Hernendez and Oliver Perez, a very good trade
Traded Evan MacLane for Shawn Green. Say what you want about Green, but this is another good trade.
Traded Heath Bell and Royce Ring for Jon Adkins and Ben Johnson. Omar got his head handed to him on this one.
Traded Brian Bannister for Ambrorix Burgos, another trade where Omar loses badly
Traded Henry Owens and Matt Lindstrom for Jason Vargas, another trade he loses out badly
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From seeing this, I'm suprised Omar gets as much credit as he does around here. He was average at BEST. He pulls off some nice deals, but also gets killed in some trades. Lets look at the Nats for an example. This is the team they could have fielded without Omar trading away most of the players. I understand Cabrera, because his salary was going to rise, so I can understand that one. And Nick Johnson and Rivera came over the Vazquez trade, which he had to do too.
C: Michael Barrett
1B: Nick Johnson
2B: Brandon Philphs
SS: Orlando Cabrera
3B: This is a blank spot, because Zimmerman came to the Nats after Omar left
CF: Grady Seizmore
RF: Jason Bay
LF: Jerry Owens/ Juan Rivera
That sure looks a lot better than what they throw out there, right now, don't they? I know the money aspect of the whole thing, but at the time most of these players were traded, they were prospects that weren't making much money.
Infact I think part of the reason why the Nats have been horrible (except for the last week against the Mets) was because of Omar.
He doesn't really help the team to a great length in the draft, and he's hit or miss in trades to the point that he hurts more than helps. I don't really see why there is such a fascination with him. And how everyone thinks he will rebuild the farm system or make great trades. I mean, he's better than say Steve Philiphs (is he really? but I'm too lazy to go look up Philphs stats) but not by much.
I'm not saying Omar is the worst GM in the world, just that he isn't that great GM that some people make him out to be. My whole intention behind this post was that, if Willie can be blamed for this collapse, then Omar should get equal or greater share of that blame.
The whole Mets team was dependent on 3 players, Beltran, Reyes, and Wright. When 2 of the 3, Beltran and Reyes slowed, the Mets were in trouble. No hot streaks by Wright, Alou, or Green could save them. Beltran has good stats over that time, but it came in a few games where he broke out.
The pitching staff was a mess. Oliver Perez and John Maine were basically aces on this team at one point or another. They are better off as good No. 3's or great No. 4 pitchers in the NL. And the bullpen was a mess, that provided Willie with very limited options to begin with. If Jorge Sosa blew up, it wasn't like Joba Chamberlain was sitting on the bench, the other choice was maybe Arron Sele, so Willie was doomed either way.
I don't think Willie is a great manager, but he's better than what he gets credit for. He just doesn't have a team that is as talented as the names suggest. The pitching was based on old players (Glavine, El Duque, Sele, Wagner) or Inexperienced players (Maine, Perez) and when they broke down, it was a free fall. The Yankees survived this year to the playoffs because of the farm system. When Scott Proctor was traded, there was a Joba Chamberlain to step in. Ian Kennedy provided 2 good starts when Roger Clemens broke down, or Phil Hughes when Pavano got hurt. They had quality in the minors (and still got a ton of them) to step in for pitching, and that saved their seasons. The Mets simply didn't have this depth, but rather had Pelfrey, Sele, and Chan Ho Park pitching trying to fill the gaps. And that lack of depth can be blamed on Omar partly too because of his lack of strength at picking players in the draft.
Any thoughts on this?