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| 2007 Record: 82-80 2007 Pythagorean Record: 82-80 4th in NL West The Los Angeles Dodgers were a popular choice to win the NL West this season, but they found themselves well behind the Colorado Rockies (NL Champions), Arizona Diamondbacks (NL West Champions) and San Diego Padres (tied for Wild Card). The Dodgers were second in the NL in batting (.275), but 10th in runs at 4.5 per game. This gap was largely a result of their .406 slugging percentage and just 129 homeruns (15th in the NL). But the future looks bright, as 2007 marked the arrival of several young players who look like future All-Stars. General Manager Ned Colletti inherited a very well-stocked farm system (isn’t the Dodgers farm system always well-stocked), but he behaved as if he was still with the Giants by signing veterans like Luis Gonzalez, Nomar Garciaparra, Juan Pierre and Mike Lieberthal when younger, equally effective young players could have been used instead. Fortunately for the Dodgers, there are few viable free agents in this year’s market outside of the centerfielders (Hunter, Jones, Rowand), so Colletti will be forced to move forward with one of the finest collections of young offensive talent under 25 in all of MLB. Manager The Dodgers undoubtedly had a disappointing season and some of that has to fall on Grady Little. He stuck with Gonzalez and Garciaparra too long and too frequently than he should have, but at the same time his lineup decisions were often a mystery. He isn’t going to give motivational speeches and he isn’t going to get in people’s face. His steady hand could be perfect for their young lineup next season. Catcher It’s impossible for me to remember a time when the Dodgers haven’t had an excellent catcher behind the plate (Piazza, Scioscia and LoDuca) and Russell Martin is continuing that tradition. He had an .843 OPS, third amongst all catchers, behind just Jorge Posada and Victor Martinez. He is also improving behind the plate and appears to have the full confidence of his pitchers. This will continue to be a position of strength indefinitely. First Base The Dodgers have one of the finest young hitters in the game in James Loney. He hit .331, with an OPS of .919 while fielding a very fine first base. Loney is the kind of hitter who should average 200 hits, 30 homeruns and 100 RBIs over the next 10 seasons. Second Base If Jeff Kent decides he wants to play baseball one more season, I would look to deal him away for an innings-eating arm. His offensive production is still top-shelf for a second baseman, but his defensive play and abrasive leadership qualities make for a bad mix with the Dodgers’ very young lineup. His departure would allow Tony Abreu and Delwyn Young (both switch hitters) to battle out the position. Abreu hit a light .271 in 166 at bats, while Young had a 1.064 OPS in his limited time in 2007. Young has had two and a half very good seasons in AAA and deserves a legitimate chance to see big league at bats in April. Third Base Nomar Garciaparra followed up a very nice resurgence in 2006 (.303/20/93) with a frustrating 2007 (.283/7/59) in nearly the same amount of games. His .699 OPS is a far drop from his 1999 and 2000 seasons when he had 1.021 and 1.033. This was even worse than his injury plagued time in Chicago when he had an OPS of .772. If there is a silver-lining it is Garciaparra’s strong September, when he had an .832 OPS. If they were to eat a few million dollars of his contract, they might be able to move him to a team intrigued by the name. Another season in Las Vegas is unlikely to help Andy La Roche, but he has struggled in his limited experience with the Dodgers (.677 OPS and more strikeouts than walks or hits). If Alex Rodriguez does indeed opt out of his contract, this is the perfect situation for him. Chasing Barry Bonds would be more difficult at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium than other places, but his bat would be perfect amongst the young bats already in place. For whatever reason, Rodriguez tends to get along better with younger players and Los Angeles is a relevant market, though less demanding from a media standpoint than a New York or Boston. Acquiring Rodriguez would lead to a trade of LaRoche and perhaps one other young bat for a top of the rotation pitcher. Shortstop Rafael Furcal had the most disappointing season of his career in 2007, largely due to his ankle injury. His .270 average and .355 slugging percentage were both career lows. During his first season at Chavez Ravine, Furcal had an OPS of .814, but it was just .688 this season. He will play 2008 out as a walk year, so a return to form should be anticipated. Left Field There is no doubt that Juan Gonzalez will not return in 2008, which will allow Juan Pierre to slide to left field, which is more suitable for his below-average arm. Pierre, a lifetime .301 hitter, hit .293 with 64 stolen bases in 2007. His numbers over the past five seasons are nearly as consistent as possible, though his OBP is substantially lover than his 2003 and 2004 seasons in Florida. Centerfield With Pierre moving over to left, centerfield opens up on an everyday basis for Matt Kemp. In just 292 at bats, Kemp hit 10 homers, with 10 stolen bases and an .894 OPS. He just turned 23 last month and has perennial All-Star written all over him if he can straighten out some of the stubborn mistakes he makes, become more patient at the plate and also improve defensively. The power his daily presence in the lineup would produce would surely improve the club's overall slugging. Right Field The loss of J.D. Drew didn’t amount to too much because of the steady play of Andre Ethier. He finished the season with an .802 OPS compared to Drew’s .796 in Boston. Acquiring Ethier from Oakland for Milton Bradley is one of Colletti’s better moves, but I wouldn’t marry myself to him everyday in right field. But he still is better and cheaper than any right field option in free agency, which should keep the Dodgers from overpaying for anyone. Ethier could be used as trade bait for a top quality pitcher and in this situation I would look at Young as his right field replacement. Starting Pitching The top of the Dodgers rotation was strong again this season with Brad Penny and Derek Lowe contributing healthy and productive seasons. Penny was especially strong, with his 3.03 ERA, good for fourth in MLB. For the third straight season, Lowe had a sub-4.00 ERA. He did seem to tire down the stretch, posting a 5.23 ERA in the second half. The Dodgers ended up paying Jason Schmidt $2.6 million per start in 2007, putting him in Roger Clemens territory. He will be 35 at the start of next season, so it is unknown if he will be able to return to any semblance of his past form. He is definitely not one to mail it in and if he is at least semi-healthy, the Dodgers could expect 150 innings an ERA around 4.00. Chad Billingsley split time between the bullpen and starting, but in 2008 he needs to start 30 games for the Dodgers. He finished the season very strong, posting a 3.12 ERA in the second half. He is only 23 and still projects as a potential ace. The Dodgers are due to pay Esteban Loaiza $6.5 million in 2008, which could turn out to be a relative bargain (especially in comparison to Schmidt) if he stays healthy. He has been one of the most inconsistent pitchers of his generation, so it is almost impossible to forecast what kind of numbers he will post. Even at 36, he has more upside than most fifth starters in the NL. There is no chance of the Dodgers exercising Randy Wolf’s 2008 option, but he is likely to re-sign for a below market contract in order to stay in the area. With injury concerns for Schmidt and Loaiza, the insurance Wolf would provide would be invaluable. Relief Pitching The Dodgers’ bullpen was a position of strength in 2007. Takashi Saito had 39 saves and a 1.40 ERA, while allowing just 13 walks. Saito was setup by Jonathan Broxton, who is certainly being groomed to eventually be the Dodgers’ closer. Broxton had a 2.85 ERA and a WHIP of 1.146 over 82 innings, following up a very impressive 2006 with another successful season. Like Broxton, Joe Beimel and Rudy Seanez were great workhorses for Little. Both had ERAs in the high 3.00’s. The trade for Scott Proctor turned out well for Los Angeles. He had a 3.38 ERA in his 32 innings of work, enjoying the new environment. Farm System The Dodgers have one of the youngest offensive lineups in all of baseball, comprised heavily of former farmhands, but talent in a few areas remain in the cupboard. Chin-Lung Hu, a 23-year-old shortstop, was very good in AAA, hitting .318 with eight homers in 192 at bats. Another season of grooming there could make him the everyday shortstop in 2009 if they let Furcal walk. Ivan DeJesus and Preston Mattingly are both younger middle infielders, but both had disappointing seasons in A ball. With an older pitching staff, the Dodgers will need to bring up pitchers, especially left-handed pitchers, in the coming years. Clayton Kershaw, a 19-year-old lefty, had a 2.95 ERA in A and AA ball in 2007. He has an excellent strikeout rate. Jonathan Meloan is a big righty, who had a 2.03 ERA as a reliever in AA and AAA |