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| 2007 Record: 88-74 2007 Pythagorean Record: 86-76 2nd in NL East The Mets showed terrible poise and great immaturity over the final stretch of the season to miss the playoffs in 2007. “We’ve got so much talent, I think sometimes we get bored,” said first baseman Carlos Delgado. The Mets are in the middle of a win-now and win-every season mode and will continue to be through the first few seasons of Citi Field, opening in 2009, and likely through the entire David Wright/Jose Reyes-era. General Manager Omar Minaya built this Mets club by adding a host of veterans around the highly talented left side of the infield (Jose Reyes and David Wright) who he inherited from the previous regimes. With the exception of Carlos Beltran, Minaya has avoided overpaying for players in their prime in free agency, filling out the roster with discarded veterans on the decline (Shawn Green, Orlando Hernandez and Damion Easley) and with younger players needing fresh scenery (John Maine, Oliver Perez and Ruben Gotay). Manager The September meltdown falls squarely at the feet of Willie Randolph. The fresh memory of the Mets’ 2006 season was enough to save him of his job this season, but it is indefensible for the National League’s highest-spending team not to make the postseason. This team has far too much talent to not be given a shot in October, so if the Mets on the outside looking out again next season, his dismissal would be a no-brainer. Catcher Minaya’s most pressing decision will be at catcher this winter. Paul Lo Duca is a free agent coming off a season in which he had a career low .689 OPS and will turn 36 during the first month of the 2008 season. They likely would have entered the bidding for Ivan Rodriguez had the Tigers not picked up his option, but there are no other more attractive alternatives in free agency. Lo Duca wants to remain with the club and is likely to accept a deal that doesn’t handcuff the Mets too badly. Ramon Castro remains one of the best back-up catchers in the entire MLB and wouldn't be a horrible everyday option, but he too is a free agent. First Base The Mets will have Carlos Delgado at first in 2008 as he enters the final year of the four-year contract he signed with Florida. His batting average dropped 10 points, but his slugging percentage dropped from .548 in 2006 to .448 in 2007, which is a strong cause for concern. He should see a better season in 2008, but he should be permanently dropped to the fifth of sixth hole in the lineup. Second Base Luis Castillo was acquired from the Twins before the deadline with the intention of becoming a longtime member of the club, but I would consider letting him walk in favor of the younger, cheaper Ruben Gotay. Castillo is an old 32 and is no longer a serious threat on the bases like he was in 2000 when he swiped 62 bases. Third Base Even though he still isn’t the best third baseman in New York, David Wright had career-highs in average (.325), homeruns (30), stolen bases (34) and hits (196). He also was excellent in September when the rest of the team (looking at you Jose Reyes) fell asleep at the controls. Wright should hit 3rd for Randolph next season. Shortstop While certainly a radical thought and one that won’t be discussed by the Mets’ brass, the idea of trading Jose Reyes should be considered. He was certainly one of the best leadoff men in the game in 2007, but was outplayed by Hanley Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins in the NL East. Reyes’ power numbers dropped from 2006, while he did steal 14 more bases. The deal would have to be perfect of course, but there is no reason why Minaya shouldn’t dip his toe in the water while the former injury-plagued shortstop comes off his third straight healthy season. Left Field Moises Alou remains an ageless wonder, but he is also a wonder who can only be counted on for about 100 games per season. Endy Chavez and the improving Carlos Gomez are more than adequate to fill in for those other 62. Center Field Carlos Beltran played through some injuries again in 2007, but he hit his typical .276, with 33 homers and 112 RBIs, while also being a threat on the base paths again. He was disappointing in clutch situations, but he did have a decent September. Beltran should be moved to clean-up in 2008. Right Field The Mets are unlikely to pick up Shawn Green’s 2008 option and will probably sever ties with the veteran altogether. He finished strong and batted .291, but he hit only 10 homeruns for the season. This is finally the season in which the Mets know what they have in Lastings Milledge. His trade value has declined somewhat from what it was in 2006, but he is far too talented not to be given a legitimate shot to play everyday. Clearly, the Mets are concerned about his maturity, but I believe much of the issues are due to him being jerked around too much within the system. Starting Pitching The Tom Glavine-era likely ended with his shocking performance on the final day of the 2007 season. He was their only 200-inning pitcher, so replacing his production is easier said than done. The Mets have no clear-cut number one starter and are unlikely to find one in this winter’s market via free agency now that Carlos Zambrano has signed an extension. If the Twins do actually make Johan Santana available via trade, then Minaya is certain to bid and he has enough young pieces to make a deal and enough Wilpon cash to ink him to an extension. Joe Blanton will almost certainly be available, but the price tag will cost them Milledge. Oliver Perez and John Maine are both in their mid-twenties and had 15-10 records with above-average ERAs. They will both be back and are serviceable middle of the rotation pitchers, but Maine’s 5.53 second half ERA is a concern. Perez, meanwhile, needs to improve his consistency from start to start. The health of Pedro Martinez will certainly be an issue again in 2008. When he returned on September 3rd, he showed that he was his same old effective self, posting a 2.57 ERA in 28 innings, while striking out 32. He has entered the Roger Clemens stage of his career, where he’d be better off beginning his season in June in order to be available for the postseason. Orlando Hernandez will be able to get people out no matter how old he is, but once again he wasn’t available late in the season when it really counted. Mike Pelfrey spent another season primarily in the minor leagues, where he had a 4.01 ERA in AAA in 14 starts. He should be given every opportunity to win that fifth slot in the rotation. Because of the uncertainty of Martinez and Hernandez health-wise, they will certainly sign a veteran starter. They could elect for a high-risk/high-reward candidate such as Mark Prior, Matt Clement or Wade Miller, or instead could go with Orlando’s brother Livan Hernandez, who is also a free agent. Relief Pitching The Mets’ bullpen remains strong, but is not nearly as bulletproof as they would like. Billy Wagner had a 2.63 ERA, while Aaron Heilman (3.03), Pedro Feliciano (3.09) and Joe Smith (3.45) were all serviceable. Guillermo Mota was horrible (5.76 ERA) when he came back from his steroid suspension. They are unlikely to convince a Francisco Cordero to fill the 8th inning role, but a Scott Linebrink is a possibility and Jeremy Affeldt is another option the Mets would covet. The Mets should sign a 6th or even 7th starter with the inevitability that they will slide to the bullpen when the staff is healthy. Farm System The stable isn’t quite as attractive as it was a year and a half ago due to the relatively slow development of Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber and Lastings Milledge. Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez and Francisco Pena represent the new big offensive hopes for Minaya’s system. Gomez had a .777 OPS in 36 AAA games in New Orleans in 2007. Martinez hit .271 with four homerun in AA ball. Pena, meanwhile, hit just .210, with five homers for Savannah in A ball. RHP Kevin Mulvey, a 22-year-old New Jersey native who grew up a Mets fan, continues to be an impressive second round prospect, posting a 3.32 ERA in AA. |