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Title: Dusty = dominant


Rockshu - September 8, 2007 01:51 AM (GMT)
8 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 1 BB, 12 K's, lowering his season ERA to 3.90. He could be in Cy Young contention in 2008, look at these numbers:

Post All Star Break: 5-4, 3.18 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.77 K/BB, 7.45 K/9
Last 10 starts: 5-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.85 K/BB, 7.47 K/9

He's always had the arm, it's just control that has always been his issue. With only 50 walks in 145.1 major league innings this year, it looks like he's finally figured it out.

TheHugeUnit - September 8, 2007 01:55 AM (GMT)
You do not want to call him Dusty.




user posted image

Rockshu - September 8, 2007 01:56 AM (GMT)
Mikky-G then...

jaysdude09 - September 8, 2007 01:59 AM (GMT)
D-Mac.

His outing today was sex.

Next One - September 8, 2007 02:08 AM (GMT)
One of his best this season, which has been a great. Him and Marcumwill be a bright spot for years to come.

Jayhawk Bill - September 9, 2007 07:59 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (Rockshu @ Sep 7 2007, 08:51 PM)
8 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 1 BB, 12 K's, lowering his season ERA to 3.90. He could be in Cy Young contention in 2008, look at these numbers:

Post All Star Break: 5-4, 3.18 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.77 K/BB, 7.45 K/9
Last 10 starts: 5-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.85 K/BB, 7.47 K/9

He's always had the arm, it's just control that has always been his issue. With only 50 walks in 145.1 major league innings this year, it looks like he's finally figured it out.

Rockshu, you called me a moron for calling McGowan a fourth starter. While I appreciate your being forthright , I believe that you're mistaken. Here's why.

Let’s look at a few 2007 stats to begin with:

HR/FB: 9.1%

That’s not going to last. MLB average is around 12%, for all pitchers. McGowan is going to allow a third more home runs in an average future year.

Ground Ball%: 53.3%

Very few pitchers maintain that effectiveness in inducing ground balls. In five stops in MiLB and MLB in 2004 and 2006, McGowan bounced between 43% and 55% ground balls. He’ll end up with a lower GB% in the future, probably about 6% less.

Line Drive%: 16.0%

McGowan was near 20% prior to 2007, and he’ll probably settle in near the 18% MLB norm.

DER: .729

The Blue Jays’ team DER is .718, the best in MLB. The MLB norm is around .700, a bit lower this year. McGowan will not get the same defensive support in future years.

ERA 3.90

Nice ERA. If one increases home runs by 33%, line drives by roughly 10%, and base hits on balls in play by 3%, that’s suddenly more like a 5.00 ERA.

But what should we expect? Is 2007 an anomaly?

Well, BP offers translations of pitchers’ previous minor league seasons into MLB terms. Here’s what one gets for McGowan:

2004 AA 4.85
2005 A 6.64
2005 AA 5.03
2005 MLB 6.36
2006 AAA 5.25
2006 MLB 7.25
2007 MLB 3.90

Look, one of these things is not like the others. We’ve got six numbers between 4.85 and 7.25, and one data point at 3.90.

Given that the peripheral stats suggest that McGowan has been lucky on ground balls, line drives, home runs and defensive support—and given his lackluster performance from 2004 through 2006—it seems optimistic to consider him more than a fourth starter.


jaysdude09 - September 10, 2007 02:02 AM (GMT)
His ERA is inflated thanks to the adjusting month or whatever he had in May.

Rockshu - September 18, 2007 01:25 AM (GMT)
Another disgusting outing, against the Red Sox no less:

9 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K's, lowering his ERA to a season low 3.84.

And he threw a pitch 99mph in the last AB in the game against Lowell, so he was still dealing.

The Doctor Is In - September 18, 2007 01:58 AM (GMT)
That was pretty sick today

webgem924 - September 18, 2007 02:50 AM (GMT)
I picked him up a few weeks in fantasy baseball, he's been outstanding

Iluvkm15 - September 18, 2007 02:57 AM (GMT)
He pitched a good game tonight




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